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Abstrict
Central Asia’s China growing interdependence and fading role of Russia has provoked contentious debates about the growing strategic imbalance in the region. The empirical data in this research paper demonstrates that the domestic, geostrategic and economic interests motivate the nature of China Central Asia and Russia Central Asia relationship. China’s pragmatic approach for establishing a comprehensive regional policy based on multilateral as well as bilateral relationships in all spheres has given considerable leverage to China and an alternative to Russia which has not been able to evolve a comprehensive policy for the region despite its longstanding political, ethnic, cultural, economic and security relationship with Central Asia. Both powers have similar objectives but different approaches with quite a distinguishable outcome. This study is an effort to analyze the implications of growing interdependence between Chinese and Central Asian states for Russia in the absence of a coherent and comprehensive policy for the region.
Keywords
China, Central Asia, Economy, Geo-strategy, Strategic Imbalance, Cross-Border Ethnic Issues
Introduction
The importance of a regional strategy has increased in order to maintain power status at the international level. Otherwise, it causes strategic imbalance Major powers to give a lot of importance to their relationship with their neighbors and immediate regions. Central Asia is one such region where multiple powers exhibit their interests. It’s the geostrategic location and rich energy resources attracted the attention of outside powers like China, USA, Iran, Pakistan, and India. Among all these states, China has been the most successful power, it’s the policy towards the region transformed the outlook of China Central Asia relations. It established itself as the closest partner for the development of the region. Central Asian states and China have been collaborating in every sphere whether its border management, security issues, ethnic issues, organizational cooperation, bilateral and multilateral trade. In other words, China’s rapid inroads have outpaced Russian efforts to maintain its geographical influence. The Central Asian region has been a conflict rid region at the time of independence. A region confronting ethnic conflicts, border disputes, extremism, rampant corruption, and poverty struggled hard for survival. Russia, the most influential actor in the region, itself confronting the grueling economic and political transition, could not form a comprehensive policy for its former republics. Geostrategic location of the region, 7 million Russian residents, rich hydrocarbon resources and their Russian built pipeline system, and a huge sum of income in form of remittances by Central Asian immigrants in Russia lays the foundation of post-Soviet Russian standing in the region (The Economist, 2013). Formation of CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union are examples of its struggle for this purpose, however, it has not produced meaningful results so far (Spechler & Spechler, 2013). And as the Sino central Asian relations are moving forward, relations between Central Asia and their previous master Russia constantly experiencing a downward trend. Though, they have never come out of the Russian sphere of influence.
In a Post-cold war era, Globalization has given impetus to interconnectedness as well as interdependence. Interdependence is a broad concept and alternatively used by different scholars (James, 2009). This research paper assumes that China and Central Asia are increasingly interconnected and depend on each other. While this interdependence and interconnectedness were already there between Central Asia and Russia. This paper attempts to present a comparative analysis of Chinese and Russian policies towards the region to investigate how respective policies of both regional powers swapped their strategic position. The growing inclination of Central Asia towards China has caused a great strategic imbalance in the region between two powers, who share the same dream with different ways and means to materialize (Blank & Kim, 2013). In regional and multilateral settings, where more than one big power is involved, increased mutual interdependence between one power and weaker states often cause strategic imbalance. This is peculiar in China Russia relations in Central Asia.
The question arises here that, how growing Central Asian inclination towards China has created a strategic imbalance in the region? And How Soviet-era ethnic bonds, political and economic clout along with Russian policy towards the region has responded to the Chinese challenge in Central Asia? In order to fully grasp this phenomenon of “strategic imbalance,” it is important to comparatively analyze Central Asia’s relationship with both states since independence.
Changing Dynamic of Regional Relations After the Cold War
Ethno-Cultural Spheres: De-Russification of Central Asia
Russian enjoys strong cultural and social influence in Central Asia. Russian has been the Lingua franca of the region. Since 1991, there has been a sharp decline in the number of Russian speakers in the region (Pavlenko, 2008). The Russian language was used as a tool of colonization during the Soviet era (Etkind, 2011). Moreover, there is a large number of Russian minorities in every country of the region, with the largest presence of 23.7% in Kazakhstan. Russian influence in both the domain is on the decline. The young generation is much aware of the importance of national language. There have been reports of protests staged in favor of local languages. Independence from the Soviet Union presented them with an opportunity to restore their own cultural identity (Tahir 2011). Another reason for this de-Russification is the gradual departure of ethnic Russians from Central Asia after 1991. However, Russians are still in a considerable amount of life in the region. Russia’s assertiveness, especially in the case of Ukraine and Georgia, has caused anxiety in Central Asian republics. This has generated apprehensions for security in the region. The steady development of nationalism has begun causing a decline in Russian status.
On the other hand, China and Central Asia both quickly realized that Resolution to Ethnic and Security issues would lay the foundation of a stable relationship and minimize the threats for violence. As complex interdependence provides that states less likely to resort to violence if there exist alternate opportunities more beneficial economically and politically in the longer run. The impact of interdependence is greater than formal alliances (Gartzke, et al., 2001). Due to this realization, both China and Central Asian states tried to demarcate their borders peacefully and adopted a sensible approach towards the ethnic issue of Uighurs, extremism, and terrorism in their adjoining areas. This makes it evident that there is a correlation between interdependence and establishing peace.
Ethno-Cultural Issues and China-Central Asia Relations
Historically, the western region of China particularly the Xinjiang region remains isolated from mainland China. Culturally and somehow politically it remains more integrated with Central Asia. There are various ethnic groups which are living on both side of borders like Uighur, Kazaks, and Uzbek, thus they have many commonalities (Bhattacharya, 2003). The disintegration of the USSR and the emergence of new Central Asian states encourage these ethnic groups in Xinjiang to resist against the central government. Initially, the Chinese government closed its border in order to limit the cross-border interaction among these groups. The liberalization of economy and openness to the world compel China to establish close cooperation with its western neighbors. In order to solve border issues and institutionalize the struggle against cross-border terrorism, “Regional Counter-Terrorism Structure” was established under the auspices of SCO to deal with the menaces of extremism and terrorism (Xiaodong, 2012). Some prominent extremist groups such as the East and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Turkestan Liberation Army are identified as a common serious threat to the regional security and stability. These threats and regional realities brought both sides together to enhance close cooperation in all sectors.
In Central Asia, a growing number of Confucius centers with a large number of Chinese learners demonstrate the growing importance of the Chinese language for economic opportunities. SCO also provides a platform for both sides to have close cooperation in all sector including cultural, education and counter-terrorism. By comparing these policies of China, we can analyze that at Russian influence has been gradually decreased while China increased its influence in all sectors.
Economic and Energy Matters as an Instrument of Strategic Dominance
China faced many obstacles in establishing its economic contacts with the Central Asian states. Since 1949, the border between China and CARs (present days) remained closed for decades. At a time when Central Asia economy was completely integrated with Russia. In fact, China and Central Asian states structured their relationship in 3 phases. Their first concern after the demise of the Soviet Union was their border demarcation, border demilitarization, and prevention of conflict in the Uighur Region (Peyrouse, 2016). China’s economic inroads in former Soviet republics can be analyzed at bilateral as well as multilateral and organizational.
In 1991, the lack of infrastructure was the biggest obstacle in the way of trade realizations. The resource-rich region was still dependent on Russia for energy trade (Fishelson, 2007). Trade between the two regions started in 1992 with the opening of a trade route between China and Kazakhstan. The trade relations grew at a slow pace and increased by 25 % only in the first decade. The initial trade amounted between $350 to $700 billion (Stronski & NG, 2018). This was the time when the Chinese economy was entering a crucial phase of its development. It was transforming itself as a buyer's economy rather than a selling economy Its growing economy required energy and overproduction needed market and trade routes. On the other hand, Central Asian economies badly required capital for infrastructure development and exploration of energy resources. This laid the foundation of economic interdependence between China and the states of Central Asia in recent decades. Both realized that their mutual benefit lays in enhancing cooperation in economics and trade. They complement each other in terms of economic advantages. Both provide broad avenues for cooperation. China needed energy resources to feed its growing industry and Central Asian states required capital investment to develop infrastructure. The regional energy sector has been struggling with the aging pipeline infrastructure of the Soviet Union. The region has been a traditional sphere of Russian influence. All oil and gas pipeline routes used to flow north towards Russia and then onwards to major consumer countries of Europe. This situation was a real test for Central Asian states, who badly needed to diversify their export routes energy trade. Nevertheless, it was a great challenge for the Chinese government as well. Chinese endeavor changed the fortune of the regional states.
Bilateral and Multilateral Level Economic Relations Between China and Central Asia
China realizes the potential benefit of gas imported from it's near abroad and has started pouring a lot of investment in the oil and gas sector of the region. Central Asia region is now fulfilling almost half of China’s gas requirements. China’s investment in the energy sector of Central Asia has surpassed every other state. Regional states have been able to explore and exploit its natural gas resourcefully through this investment. Chinese firms are investing a huge sum in, building oil refineries and new gas pipelines across the region to satisfy its domestic demand, whilst it is committed to a win-win approach based on mutual benefits (Hart, 2016).
China along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan has initiated the construction of a 1,830 kilometers gas pipeline (CNPC, 2019). This proposed pipeline commencing at Gedaim, a city located at the nexus of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, before entering Horgos in Uygur Autonomous Region of China’s Xinjiang Province. The construction of this pipeline has greatly benefited both China and the three regional states. It has been a great success in diversifying Turkmenistan’s gas export routes and reducing its dependence over Russian pipelines. Hence, China emerged as the biggest gas importer of Turkmen gas after the construction of this pipeline. According to a report published by BMI, China’s growing energy demand has compelled it to depend more on imported natural gas and oil. Petr- China, which provides almost 71% of China’s gas claims that China’s gas imports have reached 44 billion cubic meters in 2016 (China Daily, 2016). It is playing a crucial role in meeting gas demands in China’s industrial sector. Moreover, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are reaping the benefits of being transit states. With the construction of its second phase, its capacity is expected to reach 55 billion cubic meter of gas per annum. This amount of gas is equal to China's 20% of total gas consumption. Three parallel pipelines A, B, and C have been constructed initially. In 2013, China along with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan has signed a multilateral agreement to build the D pipeline of this project with an additional 30 billion cubic meter gas capacity per year.
As far as oil export from the region is concerned, China proposed to construct a pipeline spreading over an area of 3000 km, originating from the Kazakh oil fields located in the Caspian basin, traveling all the way to China to satisfy its growing energy demand and huge industrial setup. This pipeline became operational in 2006 with a capacity of 10 million tons of oil annually (Hydrocarbon Technology, 2019). The entire pipeline infrastructure built by China serves another very important objective of providing a more secure land route to Central Asian energy resources.
China has made a phenomenal rise in the Central Asian energy sector since 2005, out of $ 27.55 billion investment in Kazakhstan, China spent $ 22 billion in just the energy sector. China has assumed a leading role in economic development including industry, energy and transportation sector of Kazakhstan. CNPC and KazMunai Gas have signed a deal worth US$ 5 billion in 2005. In Kyrgyzstan, out of $ 4.19 billion $ 1.7 billion spent on the transportation sector which was crucial for Chinese trade across the region. In September 2013, China–Kyrgyzstan upgraded their relations to a strategic partnership level. China has made rapid progress and becomes the second-largest trade partner of Kyrgyzstan. In the words of a former Kyrgyz minister, “every small business in Kyrgyzstan is reliant on trade with China” (Pantucci & Lifan, 2013). Tajikistan’s strategic location and the joint border with Xinjiang makes it a very important country for China despite a poor economy. During his official visit to China in 2012, President Rehmanov of Tajikistan signed ten new agreements with the Chinese counterpart for the development of poor infrastructure and hydro-power plants. In 2013, both countries upgraded their relationship to the strategic level in a joint communique of presidents (Ningzhu, 2013). Tajikistan received $ 940 million during this period between 2005 and 2015. One-third of this investment was used on building transport infrastructure. China has made rapid inroads in Turkmenistan. The construction of the 1,830-km gas pipeline was completed in December 2009. Both have signed an agreement to increase the gas supply in 2011. China-Central Asia Gas pipeline, one of the largest pipelines of the world has been completed with an investment of US$15.72 billion (Huang 2013). The expenditure over the energy sector exceeds all other sectors in all other regional states in Turkmenistan. A total of $ 3.88 billion of Chinese investment in the energy sector comprises over 95% of total investment. As far as Uzbekistan is concerned, China has evolved as the biggest trading partner. Their bilateral trade has increased almost 20 times since 1992. Both countries established a strategic partnership in 2012 (Reuters, 2012). State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan revealed that 357 Chinese companies have been operating in Uzbekistan. It has received a sum of $2.38 billion. Approximately $1 billion was spent on the energy sector and $650 million over transportation facilities (American Enterprise Institute, 2019). Despite the recent slowdown in growth rate, China’s import of oil remained an all-time high in the first quarter of 2016. Besides investing in pipelines, China has made great efforts in modernizing the industrial structure and developing its economy. Consequently, it has become the largest trade partner and investor in the Central Asian region during the last 10 years. Its capital investment has increased manifolds.
Table 1. Growth in Chinese investment 2010-2016
| S/N width="155" valign="top">Name width="125" valign="top">Investment 2010 width="132" valign="top">Investment 2016 | > 1 width="155" valign="top">Kazakhstan width="125" valign="top">$ 11.6 billion width="132" valign="top">$ 27.55 billion | > 2 width="155" valign="top">Kyrgyzstan width="125" valign="top">$ 370 million width="132" valign="top">$ 4.19 billion | > 3 width="155" valign="top">Tajikistan width="125" valign="top">$ 640 million width="132" valign="top">$ 940 million | > 4 width="155" valign="top">Turkmenistan width="125" valign="top">$ 3.28 billion width="132" valign="top">$ 3.88 billion | > 5 width="155" valign="top">Uzbekistan width="125" valign="top">$ 1.17 billion width="132" valign="top">$ 2.38 billion |
This was the level of partnership between the newly independent Central Asian countries and their giant neighbor China between 2001 and 2016. It took their strategic partnership and regional interdependence to a new height, which resulted in the favor of both China and the states of Central Asia. Due to this unprecedented economic activity, China has been able to achieve a double-figures growth-rate and Central Asian states successfully developed their economy.
Table 2. Increase in GDP of Central Asian countries. (In Billion US$)
| S/N width="115" valign="top">Country width="101" valign="top">2001 width="85" valign="top">2005 width="85" valign="top">2010 width="89" valign="top">2015 | > 1 width="115" valign="top">Kazakhstan width="101" valign="top">22.153 width="85" valign="top">57.124 width="85" valign="top">148.047 width="89" valign="top">184.388 | > 2 width="115" valign="top">Kyrgyzstan width="101" valign="top">1.525 width="85" valign="top">2.46 width="85" valign="top">4.794 width="89" valign="top">6.572 | > 3 width="115" valign="top">Tajikistan width="101" valign="top">1.081 width="85" valign="top">2.312 width="85" valign="top">5.642 width="89" valign="top">7.853 | > 4 width="115" valign="top">Turkmenistan width="101" valign="top">3.535 width="85" valign="top">8.104 width="85" valign="top">22.583 width="89" valign="top">35.855 | > 5 width="115" valign="top">Uzbekistan width="101" valign="top">11.401 width="85" valign="top">14.308 width="85" valign="top">39.333 width="89" valign="top">66.733 |
